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1. Christmas Personified as a Catgirl (moonman@shitposter.club)'s status on Tuesday, 11-Apr-2017 03:05:19 UTC Christmas Personified as a Catgirl

   • Chris ☕
   @cws My estimate is half will be gone in two months. Multiple servers will be lost because nobody is doing regular backups, 90% of those users on dead servers will say "fuck it" and go back to Twitter. 3/4 of all the new users will be gone in a year.
   
   A few brands, a couple "actual famous" not "Internet famous" will pop in for a while, bring another burst of attention with them, and then let their accounts languish.
   
   None of this means Mastodon has "failed" it's just regular attrition. Bottom line is as cool as Mastodon is people want a centralized service because they can't stand that there are servers full of people that can't just be banned from the network (like mine); and find the incongruous usability experience of federated servers to be annoying and unnecessary. There will be many people who remain, and the fediverse, with a large number of Mastodon servers, will continue to exist and make its users happy. "Niche" groups that find the Fediverse (most likely through Mastodon) will be kink groups, bot-makers and experimenters that are fed up with Twitter's shitty rate-limited API, communities based around shared trauma or unique social experience. Other groups will stick around, too. Most of the GNU Social instances will not go away or convert to Mastodon. These people will all come together to Keep the Fediverse Weird (the way it ought to be, tyvm.)
   
   Those are my public predictions. I have other predictions that I am not sharing because sometimes saying the future changes the outcome.
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   • Christmas Personified as a Catgirl (moonman@shitposter.club)'s status on Tuesday, 11-Apr-2017 03:14:44 UTC Christmas Personified as a Catgirl

     • Chris ☕
     @cws contrary to prevailing opinion on our side of the fediverse, the code of Mastodon that I have looked at, with only few exceptions related to scalability, is very good. Servers will fail because docker makes it really easy to set up a server, so easy that people who don't have the skills or attentiveness to maintain a server over the long haul will set one up, then either get bored & quit or lose the db in an outage or botched update.
     
     This next part is an area I have direct insight into: there are very good things on the horizon with regards to federated social networks. The interest in Mastodon has attracted some very skilled and motivated people.
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