Conversation
Notices
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Lets take an example. Suppose if my spearman has a 60% chance to hit an horseman. There's a 6.4% probability to miss in all three turns and 21.6% to hit in all three turns. Suppose my spearman misses all three turns, then how does the probability to hit in all three turns increase?
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The Gambler's fallacy:
I fall for this fallacy when playing battle for Wesnoth - if my unit misses several times, I assume that it will hit more frequently the next few times. https://social.systemreboot.net/attachment/70815
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* replace turn by attempt. There's 3 attempts per turn.