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1. Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange: (jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 11:26:53 UTC Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

   Modeling a full #embargo on #Russian gas for Germany, worst case scenario, with 5 industry sectors coming to a full stop over night, results in a reduction of GDP of around 3%. Tough, but manageable. We had a pandemic drop of 4% and are still here. Source: various research. 1/2

   • Tagomago (tagomago@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 11:26:50 UTC Tagomago

     in reply to

     @jwildeboer Do they take into account the tax loss from their workers and the unemployment benefits the government should spend? Also the energy price raises? Just curious, I wish we could just unplug that thing, and the rest of fossils for that matter.

   • Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange: (jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 11:26:52 UTC Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

     in reply to

     Correction: pandemic drop was 4.9%. Source for the 3% calculation: DIW Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Model calculation/explanation in German at: https://www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c.837973.de/publikationen/diw_aktuell/2022_0080/stopp_russischer_energieeinfuhren_wuerde_deutsche_wirtschaft_spuerbar_treffen__fiskalpolitik_waere_in_der_verantwortung.html 2/2

   • Tagomago (tagomago@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 14:23:36 UTC Tagomago

     in reply to

     @jwildeboer Then that's totally doable. I imagined a much darker picture. Time to divest from fossil empires right now.

   • Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange: (jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 14:23:37 UTC Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

     in reply to

     • Tagomago

     @tagomago Yes. They take that into account. Also impact of rising inflation and possible drop in demand etc.

   • Tagomago (tagomago@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 14:48:22 UTC Tagomago

     in reply to

     • Michel Salim :fedora: :debian:

     @michel_slm @jwildeboer Of course, one must sow in order to harvest. Short-sighted stances must go out the window. So sick of it all.

   • Michel Salim :fedora: :debian: (michel_slm@floss.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 14:48:23 UTC Michel Salim :fedora: :debian:

     in reply to

     • Tagomago

     @tagomago @jwildeboer plus the long term impact of accelerating the transition to renewables is likely positive, right? Unlike, cough, Brexit

   • Tagomago (tagomago@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 17:48:56 UTC Tagomago

     in reply to

     • Michel Salim :fedora: :debian:

     @michel_slm @jwildeboer Thank you both, I certainly need to internalize that mindset...

   • Michel Salim :fedora: :debian: (michel_slm@floss.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 17:48:57 UTC Michel Salim :fedora: :debian:

     in reply to

     • Tagomago

     @jwildeboer @tagomago yeah. It's a race and let's just hope the transition wins. We can only change our personal lifestyles and advocate for greener policies, no point losing sleep after that

   • Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange: (jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net)'s status on Sunday, 24-Apr-2022 17:48:59 UTC Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

     in reply to

     • Tagomago
     • Michel Salim :fedora: :debian:

     @tagomago @michel_slm Which is why I have embraced patience and stubbornness as my personal superpower ;) Compared to 20 years ago, many things have already changed towards the better side. This will continue. Temporary setbacks won’t change the direction we’re collectively taking.