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1. Bernie (codewiz@mstdn.io)'s status on Thursday, 09-Dec-2021 06:52:27 UTC Bernie

   in reply to

   • Benoit
   • chebra

   @chebra @benoit Normally, I would agree. But are earthquakes actually independent events? Or is energy slowly building up in the crust until it's discharged all at once?

   • chebra (chebra@mstdn.io)'s status on Thursday, 09-Dec-2021 06:52:28 UTC chebra

     in reply to

     • Benoit

     @benoit Isn't this basically the gambler's fallacy?

   • Benoit (benoit@toots.benpro.fr)'s status on Thursday, 09-Dec-2021 06:52:29 UTC Benoit

     #lastboost

     The probability of a major earthquake (M8 to M9 class) along the Nankai Trough occurring within the next 30 years is 70 to 80% even under normal conditions, and since more than 70 years have already passed since the occurrence of the Showa-Tonankai and Showa-Nankai earthquakes, the situation is highly urgent.

     :thinking_hard: :blobsweat: :mindblown: