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Notices by Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)

Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Friday, 05-Jan-2024 12:38:18 UTC Zack Labe

🚨 I don't think this should surprise anyone - last year's average #Antarctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record...
Data averaged from January to December using https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index
In conversation about 11 months ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Sea Ice Index Daily and Monthly Image Viewer
2. Line graph time series of annual mean Antarctic sea ice extent for each year from 1979 to 2023. There are no statistically significant long-term trends. 2023 is the lowest on record in this time series.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/703/371/518/731/965/original/b5bd4c5d4cf3c1c6.png
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Saturday, 30-Dec-2023 15:27:38 UTC Zack Labe

ICYMI: important figures from a recent report that should be widely shared. Global CO₂ emissions & the challenges ahead...
+ Project: https://globalcarbonbudget.org
+ Summary: https://carbonbrief.org/analysis-growth-of-chinese-fossil-co2-emissions-drives-new-global-record-in-2023/
+ Published Report: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5301/2023/
+ Graphics: https://robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2023/
In conversation about 11 months ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Line graph time series of global fossil CO2 emissions since the late 1950s to 2023. 2023 is at record high levels of 37.5 Gt CO2, which is an increase of 1.1%. Historical events, such as the first oil crisis and COVID-19 are annotated.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/669/762/450/696/044/original/685928cd55db4544.png
2. Global CO2 pathways shown for the IPCC AR6 carbon budges of 1.5°C, 1.7°C, and 2.0°C, which are projections from present to 2100.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/669/762/464/513/990/original/a9f621c6964931e0.png
3. Home
  
  from gcarbonproject
  
  The critical annual update revealing the latest trends in global carbon emissions
4. Analysis: Growth of Chinese fossil CO2 emissions drives new global record in 2023 - Carbon Brief
  
  from Carbon Brief Staff
  
  Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement have increased by 1.1% in 2023, hitting a new record high of 36.8bn tonnes of CO2
5. Global Carbon Budget 2023
  
  Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).
6. Figures from the Global Carbon Budget 2023
  
  from @robbie_andrew
  
  The Global Carbon Budget 2023 was released on 5 December 2023. This page presents all of the figures in the Budget's presentation materials, in a variety of formats and often with data files.
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Friday, 22-Dec-2023 01:44:32 UTC Zack Labe

Another global sea level update with satellite altimetry data now processed through early November 2023 🌊
+ Note that this graph was produced by https://aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level.html
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Home
2. Line graph time series showing the latest mean sea level as of 8 November 2023 using data from 1993. There is a long-term increasing trend and linear trend line shown on the graph. The current rate of increase is +3.60 mm/yr.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/621/441/853/578/613/original/cd79a1fd963ad3c1.png
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Thursday, 14-Dec-2023 23:15:30 UTC Zack Labe
in reply to
- Santiago
@santiago Haha, no I still will not. Interpreting standardized anomalies is not as simple or even too informative in a nonstationary climate.

In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Thursday, 14-Dec-2023 16:49:12 UTC Zack Labe

Is anyone actually surprised by this? Another new global temperature record for November 2023...
(Preliminary) NASA GISTEMPv4 data/info: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/faq/
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Line graph time series of global mean surface temperature anomalies for every November from 1880 through 2023. A red 30-year lowess smoothing line is also shown. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1951-1980 baseline. The global mean surface temperature anomaly in November 2023 was +1.44°C. There is large interannual variability and a recent long-term warming trend.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/579/631/988/572/505/original/10f71646c23e6756.png
2. Data.GISS: GISTEMP -- Frequently Asked Questions
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Sunday, 10-Dec-2023 21:36:05 UTC Zack Labe

Wow, the last three months have really shattered the previous September to November temperature record for our planet...
Using data from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means?tab=overview
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Untitled attachment
2. Line graph time series showing the global temperature anomalies for every September to November period from 1979 to 2023. There is interannual variability but a clear long-term increasing trend. 2023 is an outlier and the warmest on record in this time series. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1981-2010 baseline, and all data is from ERA5 reanalysis.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/557/932/360/062/626/original/9790bf9a389686ce.png
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Sunday, 03-Dec-2023 15:26:26 UTC Zack Labe

No new record for a change!! Last month averaged the 2nd lowest #Antarctic sea ice extent on record for the month of November. This was 1,630,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. Data from https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Sea Ice Index Daily and Monthly Image Viewer
2. Line graph time series of Antarctic sea ice extent for each year in November from 1979 to 2023. There are no statistically significant long-term trends. 2023 is the 2nd lowest on record in this time series.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/517/019/184/179/929/original/c6d372609ef6d74d.png
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Tuesday, 28-Nov-2023 16:50:28 UTC Zack Labe

I encourage you to watch the whole thing. The August to October period for average temperature departures over the last 100 years...
Data from https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4)
2. August to October surface air temperature anomalies over land for each year from 1924 to 2023. There is a long-term warming trend.
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Friday, 24-Nov-2023 22:14:28 UTC Zack Labe

Have a great weekend! Here's your Friday ice update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the 8th lowest on record (JAXA data)...
• about 40,000 km² above the 2010s mean
• about 580,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,200,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 1,720,000 km² below the 1980s mean
Other climate plots: https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Invalid filename.
  
  Arctic: Sea-Ice Concentration/Extent
  
  from Zack Labe
  
  My visualizations: Arctic Climate Seasonality and Variability Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentration Arctic Sea Ice Volume and Thickness Arctic Temperatures Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentrat…
2. Line graph time series of 2023's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The decadal averages are shown with different colored lines with white for the 1980s, green for the 1990s, blue for the 2000s, and purple for the 2010s. Thin white lines are also shown for each year from 2002 to 2022. 2023 is shown with a thick gold line. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year shown on this graph between October and December.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/467/821/360/507/810/original/5e2122ff2ce2944d.png
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Monday, 20-Nov-2023 02:05:24 UTC Zack Labe

Last month was the most anomalous on record for temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere...
Using data from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means?tab=overview
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Untitled attachment
2. Line graph time series of monthly mean surface temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere region only. Every month is shown from 1940 to 2023. There is a long-term warming trend in all months with an outlier for 2023.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/438/952/740/898/406/original/a920f7402cb49a90.png
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Tuesday, 14-Nov-2023 21:16:23 UTC Zack Labe

Top 5 warmest October global temperatures since at least 1891 - using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/oct_wld.html)...
1. *2023*
2. 2015
3. 2019
4. 2022/2021
No, I did not make this graph, so plz don't complain to me about the regression line.
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Line graph time series of global mean surface air temperature anomalies for every October from 1891 through 2023. There is a long-term warming trend. A 5-year running mean and long-term linear trend are also displayed on this graph. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991 to 2020 baseline.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/410/554/466/853/290/original/147ce5d7f89524d2.png
2. Untitled attachment
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Monday, 13-Nov-2023 13:46:15 UTC Zack Labe

The remarkable string of days with record low #Antarctic sea ice extent is coming to an end (started in April/May), as the rate of decline has slowed (melt season - austral spring). 2016 is the record low for November and December.
More graphs: https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Invalid filename.
  
  Antarctic: Sea-Ice Concentration/Extent/Thickness
  
  from Zack Labe
  
  My visualizations: Arctic Climate Seasonality and Variability Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentration Arctic Sea Ice Volume and Thickness Arctic Temperatures Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentrat…
2. Line graph time series of 2023's daily Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies in red shading compared to each year from 1979 to 2022 using shades of purple to white for each line. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1981-2010 baseline. 2023 is a negative outlier for this time of year. There is substantial interannual and daily variability. There are no clear long-term trends.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/403/481/567/117/369/original/778d097f31c8c03a.png
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Sunday, 05-Nov-2023 15:22:11 UTC Zack Labe

October continued to set another striking record for globally-averaged sea surface temperatures...
Data available from NOAA ERSSTv5 (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html). Methods detailed in https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1.
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. No result found on File_thumbnail lookup.
  
  : NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
  
  from PSL Web Team
  
  US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory
2. Green line graph time series of average sea surface temperature anomalies for each October from 1900 through 2023. There is large interannual variability, but an overall long-term increasing trend. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1981-2010 baseline.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/358/374/225/938/314/original/24082ba918a4c78f.png
3. Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons
  
  from Huai-Min Zhang
  
  Abstract The monthly global 2° × 2° Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) has been revised and updated from version 4 to version 5. This update incorporates a new release of ICOADS release 3.0 (R3.0), a decade of near-surface data from Argo floats, and a new estimate of centennial sea ice from HadISST2. A number of choices in aspects of quality control, bias adjustment, and interpolation have been substantively revised. The resulting ERSST estimates have more realistic spatiotemporal variations, better representation of high-latitude SSTs, and ship SST biases are now calculated relative to more accurate buoy measurements, while the global long-term trend remains about the same. Progressive experiments have been undertaken to highlight the effects of each change in data source and analysis technique upon the final product. The reconstructed SST is systematically decreased by 0.077°C, as the reference data source is switched from ship SST in ERSSTv4 to modern buoy SST in ERSSTv5. Furthermore, high-latitude SSTs are decreased by 0.1°–0.2°C by using sea ice concentration from HadISST2 over HadISST1. Changes arising from remaining innovations are mostly important at small space and time scales, primarily having an impact where and when input observations are sparse. Cross validations and verifications with independent modern observations show that the updates incorporated in ERSSTv5 have improved the representation of spatial variability over the global oceans, the magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events, and the decadal nature of SST changes over 1930s–40s when observation instruments changed rapidly. Both long- (1900–2015) and short-term (2000–15) SST trends in ERSSTv5 remain significant as in ERSSTv4.
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Friday, 03-Nov-2023 19:14:29 UTC Zack Labe

🚨 Yet again, another record. Last month averaged the lowest #Antarctic sea ice extent on record for the month of October This was 1,900,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. Data from https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index.
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Sea Ice Index Daily and Monthly Image Viewer
2. Line graph time series of Antarctic sea ice extent for each year in October from 1979 to 2023. There are no statistically significant long-term trends. 2023 is the lowest on record in this time series.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/348/190/568/182/905/original/19dbac1ee2899be4.png
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Monday, 30-Oct-2023 16:17:26 UTC Zack Labe

100 years of July-August-September temperature anomalies over land through 2023. It's going to get hotter.
Data from https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4)
2. Animation of global maps showing surface air temperature anomalies over land areas for every July to September period in 100 years. Red shading is shown for warmer anomalies, and blue shading is shown for colder anomalies. There is a long-term warming trend in nearly all locations and some interannual spatial variability.
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Friday, 20-Oct-2023 02:01:34 UTC Zack Labe
in reply to
- Santiago
@santiago I usually detrend first before applying any standardization methods when evaluating climate data indices.

In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Friday, 20-Oct-2023 01:56:08 UTC Zack Labe

A look at the ridiculous warmth observed over land globally last month...
Data from https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4)
2. Animation of a moving line graph time series showing surface air temperature anomalies for each September from 1900 to 2023. The average is calculated for all land areas globally. There is interannual variability and a long-term warming trend with a record high in 2023. Anomalies are computed relative to 1981-2010.
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Friday, 20-Oct-2023 01:55:27 UTC Zack Labe
in reply to
- Santiago
@santiago In a non-stationary climate, I don't find those statistical interpretations very helpful for my temperature graphics.

In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Sunday, 15-Oct-2023 01:27:03 UTC Zack Labe

I do not have better news.
Last monthly climate indicators update: https://zacklabe.com/climate-change-indicators/
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Invalid filename.
  
  Climate change indicators
  
  from Zack Labe
  
  All data are referenced at My visualizations: Arctic Climate Seasonality and Variability Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentration Arctic Sea Ice Volume and Thickness Arctic Temperatures Antarctic Se…
2. This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through September 2023. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 419 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1917 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 337 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/236/369/045/085/475/original/e0132cae71600f66.png
Zack Labe (zlabe@fediscience.org)'s status on Friday, 13-Oct-2023 03:48:43 UTC Zack Labe

Now averaging across the entire #Antarctic last month shows a record high for the month of September...
See my earlier post today for the spatial distribution of temperature anomalies: https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe/111222620934337678
Data from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means?tab=overview
In conversation about a year ago from fediscience.org permalink
Attachments
1. Untitled attachment
2. Line graph time series of monthly mean surface temperature anomalies for the Antarctic region only. A small map of this region is shown. Every month is displayed rom 1940 to 2023. There is a small long-term warming trend in most months.
  https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/223/336/407/925/166/original/9aa75881bca2a8ce.png
3. Zack Labe (@ZLabe@fediscience.org)
  
  from Zack Labe
  
  Attached: 1 image Last month observed highly anomalous temperatures across nearly all of #Antarctica - departures exceeding 5°C above/below the 1981-2010 reference period... Data from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means?tab=overview

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Climate Scientist (Atmospheric) PhD | Postdoc at Princeton University & NOAA GFDL | UC Irvine and Cornell University alum | Sharing data-driven stories | Be kind | Views are my own |My research and communication interests coincide with disentangling patterns of climate change from climate variability using data-driven methods. Also, scary movie fan!#Arctic #ClimateChange #DataViz #MachineLearning #OpenScience #Python #SciComm #Weather #wxMastodon #wxTwitter

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